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Simulation

Boxingnever sleeps

Real maths. Real odds. No real fighters.

Every price on this site is computed from a boxing match being simulated in your browser right now. No bookmaker feed, no real fighters, no real fixtures, and nothing here can be bet on.

Watch tonight's fight → How the price is built

Tonight's card

Four fights, all running at once, all priced from their own position. Pick one and it goes in the ring.

All four live

In the ring

The fight below is being simulated as you watch. Every price beside it is four thousand finishes of this fight, from exactly where it stands, counted up.

Main event Heavyweight
R13:00 left
Simulation
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KO

To win the fight

BOOK 100.0%

Fair prices, so the three add to exactly 100%. A bookmaker's would add to more, and the difference is theirs. The tools below will measure it on any market you like.

Method of victory

BOOK 100.0%

Distance

Two-way

The three scorecards

Punch stats

Why the price moved

No tipsters, no bylines. The only thing on this site with an opinion about the fight is the model, and this is it showing its working.

Round by round

Simulated
The offer that isn't one

Bet £10Get £40

You have seen that banner a thousand times. We have no bookmaker deals and nothing to sell you, so instead of the offer, here is the arithmetic behind it — and the answer is never £40.

No offer. No affiliate links. No accounts. 18+

The ratings

The mock-up this site was drawn from had a world rankings panel with real champions and made-up ranking points. This is the honest version of that panel.

Computed in your browser
#FighterFrom the cardRecordWin rate
Running the round-robin…

Eight fighters who do not exist

Not one of these is a real boxer, and that is the point. The engine attaches punch statistics, knockdown counts and win prices to whoever it is given. Against a real name those would be a fabricated record of a real person's ability, so every fighter here is invented.

“Cold Iron”

Rab Kinnaird-Shaw

Lochee, Dundee · Orthodox · Heavyweight

Walks you down and hits like a dropped anvil. Twelve rounds is the one thing he has never had to do.

Work rate 60
Accuracy 61
Defence 56
Power 90
Chin 64
Stamina 52

Marek Wolniewicz-Doyle

Gdansk and Coatbridge · Orthodox · Heavyweight

Behind the jab, takes a shot, still throwing in the twelfth. Needs to survive the first four.

Work rate 60
Accuracy 68
Defence 67
Power 66
Chin 80
Stamina 74
“Voltage”

Femi Adebola-Rae

Chapeltown, Leeds · Orthodox · Super middleweight

Throws less than anyone on the card and lands more. Gets hit cleanly maybe twice a fight, and it shows.

Work rate 58
Accuracy 80
Defence 76
Power 74
Chin 64
Stamina 70
“Panelbeater”

Tommy Craik-Nairn

Arbroath · Southpaw · Super middleweight

The hardest man on the card to hurt and the easiest to hit. Wins rounds by being there in round eleven.

Work rate 66
Accuracy 60
Defence 56
Power 58
Chin 88
Stamina 82
“El Reloj”

Joaquin Serrano-Pike

Cadiz · Orthodox · Lightweight

Named for the clock because he fights to one. Not a puncher; has never needed to be.

Work rate 62
Accuracy 76
Defence 73
Power 58
Chin 72
Stamina 78

Ade Oyelaran-Booth

Peckham, London · Switch-hitter · Lightweight

Changes stance mid-combination and carries the division's biggest left hook from either side of it.

Work rate 62
Accuracy 72
Defence 65
Power 84
Chin 60
Stamina 64
“Blueprint”

Nadia Kowalczyk-Reid

Krakow and Dundee · Orthodox · Women's welterweight

The highest work rate on the card and the best engine. Two-minute rounds suit her exactly.

Work rate 68
Accuracy 71
Defence 69
Power 60
Chin 76
Stamina 84

Sofia Ibarra-Quinn

Guadalajara · Orthodox · Women's welterweight

Gives away two rounds working out the range, then takes the next three off you.

Work rate 64
Accuracy 77
Defence 71
Power 78
Chin 68
Stamina 68

Score it yourself

Ten-point must, three judges, and you. Score the fight in the ring round by round and see how your card compares with the three the engine is keeping. Knockdown deductions are applied for you, because that part is a rule rather than an opinion.

Odds tools

Four calculators that do arithmetic, correctly, and tell you nothing about who is going to win. Everything here works offline and none of it sends anything anywhere.

Odds converter

Boxing is the one British market where the coupon, the exchange and Las Vegas all use a different notation for the same number.

Overround on a three-way

The single most useful sum in betting: what the market costs to enter, before you have any opinion at all about the fight.

Weight-class finder

Seventeen divisions from 105 lb to no limit at all. Type a weight and it will find it, in pounds, kilos or stones.

The seventeen divisions

Upper limits, as published. The kilos and stones are converted from the pounds rather than typed in twice, so they cannot disagree.

Divisionlbkgst
Minimumweight Strawweight / Mini flyweight 105 47.63 7 st 7
Light flyweight Junior flyweight 108 48.99 7 st 10
Flyweight 112 50.80 8 st
Super flyweight Junior bantamweight 115 52.16 8 st 3
Bantamweight 118 53.52 8 st 6
Super bantamweight Junior featherweight 122 55.34 8 st 10
Featherweight 126 57.15 9 st
Super featherweight Junior lightweight 130 58.97 9 st 4
Lightweight 135 61.23 9 st 9
Super lightweight Junior welterweight 140 63.50 10 st
Welterweight 147 66.68 10 st 7
Super welterweight Junior middleweight 154 69.85 11 st
Middleweight 160 72.57 11 st 6
Super middleweight 168 76.20 12 st
Light heavyweight 175 79.38 12 st 7
Cruiserweight Junior heavyweight 200 90.72 14 st 4
Heavyweight No upper limit — no limit

The rules

This is the one part of the page that is not simulated, computed or invented. These are how professional boxing actually works, and the engine above obeys every one of them.

Factual · checked 17 September 2026

Twelve threes, and why

A men's world-title fight is twelve rounds of three minutes. It used to be fifteen. The change followed the death of Duk Koo Kim after a fifteen-round title fight in 1982: the WBC cut its championship distance the following year and the other bodies had all followed by the end of the decade.

Ten twos

A women's world-title fight is ten rounds of two minutes. That is twenty minutes of boxing against a man's thirty-six, and it changes the sport rather than shrinking it: fewer punches land per round, so rounds are closer, judges split more often, and the draw is a much shorter price. The opener on this card is scored over ten twos and you can watch that happen in the prices.

The ten-point must system

The winner of a round must get ten points. The loser gets nine, and drops a further point for every knockdown. Judges are told to find a winner, which is why a 10-10 round is scored in well under one round in a hundred. A twelve-round shutout is 120-108.

Three judges, three cards

Three judges score independently and the fight is decided by how their cards fall: unanimous if all three agree, split if one dissents, majority if one has it level. Two level cards is a majority draw, one card each way plus a level one is a split draw.

The count

A fighter who is down has ten seconds, and the count does not begin until the other fighter is in a neutral corner. Beating the count is not the end of it: the referee then has to decide whether the fighter is fit to carry on, and that decision ends more fights than the count itself does.

Eight ounces, or ten

Championship gloves are eight ounces up to and including welterweight and ten ounces above it. The heavier glove spreads the impact over a larger area — it protects the hands inside it at least as much as the head it lands on.

Four bodies, one undisputed

The WBA, WBC, IBF and WBO each sanction their own world champion in each division, which is why a division can hold four champions at once. A fighter who holds all four at the same time is undisputed. It is rare, and it rarely lasts, because the bodies order their champions to defend against their own mandatory challengers.

Seventeen divisions

Professional boxing runs from minimumweight at 105 lb to heavyweight, which has no upper limit, in seventeen steps. The gaps are not even: seven pounds between light heavyweight and cruiserweight's twenty-five, because the divisions were added piecemeal over a century rather than designed.

How the price is built

Five steps, all of them running in your browser while you read this.

It throws real punches

Work rate sets how many go out, accuracy against the other fighter's defence sets how many land. Calibrated so two evenly matched fighters connect with about 31% of what they throw, which is what professional punch statistics actually show.

It hurts people properly

Every power punch that lands gets its own knockdown check: this fighter's power against that fighter's chin, multiplied up by the damage already on board. Being behind is dangerous, which is true.

The referee has a job

Most knockdowns are beaten. Most fights that end early end because the referee waves it off, not because somebody is counted out — about three to one, which is the shape of the real record books.

Three judges, scoring badly

Each judge sees the round through their own noise, so clear rounds are scored the same way by all three and close ones are where the cards come apart. That is where split decisions come from here, and there.

Then it prices it

From exactly where the fight stands — this round, this damage, these three cards — it finishes the fight four thousand more times and counts what happened. The price is one over the share. Nothing else.

Odds with the working shownEvery price is four thousand simulated finishes of the fight on your screen, counted up. Not a feed.
A book that is exactly 100%No margin baked in anywhere. A bookmaker adds one on top, and the tools below show you how much.
The real rulesTen-point must, three independent judges, knockdown deductions, the count, the referee's call.
Nothing to bet onNo affiliate links, no bookmakers listed, no accounts. When that changes, this line changes with it.

Worth knowing

Reference, not news. No dates and no bylines, because there is no newsroom here.

How a boxing price is actually builtTwo fighters in, a probability out, a price after that. The draw is the interesting bit.

Boxing is harder to model than darts, because there is no clean unit. A leg of darts either ends or it does not; a round of boxing ends in the opinion of three people. So a boxing model has to do two separate jobs: work out what physically happens in the ring, and then work out how three judges would score it.

This one does both. Punches thrown come from work rate; punches landed come from accuracy against the other fighter's defence; each landed power punch gets its own knockdown check against the opponent's chin and the damage already on board. Then three judges score the round through their own noise, which is where split decisions come from.

To price it, the model takes the fight exactly where it stands — this round, this damage, these three scorecards — and finishes it four thousand more times. The share of those finishes that each outcome takes is its probability. One divided by that is the fair decimal price. That is the entire method, and it is why a knockdown moves the number while you are watching: it genuinely changes the position.

A bookmaker does the same job with real fighters and real data, and then adds a margin.

Why the draw is such a long price, and when it is notThree judges scoring twelve rounds of a close fight draw more often than you would think.

A drawn fight needs the cards to fall level, and there are several ways for that to happen: all three judges level, two level, or one judge each way with the third level. The chance is not small when two fighters are genuinely evenly matched, which is why the draw on a 50-50 twelve-rounder prices around 20.0 rather than the 100.0 most people would guess.

It moves for reasons you can watch. A division where fights end early has a shorter distance price and therefore a longer draw: a fight that finishes in the sixth cannot be drawn. The heavyweight main event on this card opens with the longest draw price of the four for exactly that reason, and it shortens every round both men stay upright.

It moves the other way for a ten-round fight. Fewer rounds means an even split is more likely, and two-minute rounds are closer rounds, so the women's opener carries the shortest draw on the card. None of that is typed in. It falls out of counting.

Overround: the bit that is not the probabilityTurn every price into a percentage and add them up. Whatever is over 100% is the margin.

Convert a decimal price to an implied probability by dividing one by it. A price of 2.00 implies 50%. Do that for every outcome in a market and add the results together. If the market carried no margin the total would be exactly 100%.

It never is. A three-way boxing market priced 1.57, 21.0 and 2.50 implies 63.7%, 4.8% and 40.0%, which adds to 108.5%. Those 8.5 percentage points are the overround, and they are the bookmaker's expected cut of everything staked on the fight.

This matters more in boxing than in most sports, because the draw sits in the middle of the market soaking up margin that nobody notices. It matters more again on a method-of-victory market, where five prices each carry a slice. The tools below will do the sum.

What a free bet is actually worthA free bet returns the winnings and keeps the stake. That is the whole trick.

Bet £10, get £40 in free bets. The £40 is not £40. When you place a free bet the stake is not returned with the winnings, so a £40 free bet at evens pays £40 rather than the £80 a £40 cash bet would. At a fair price the free bet is worth its face value times the chance of losing — which is the number the calculator on this page works out.

The consequence is the opposite of what most people do with them: a free bet is worth more at a long price than a short one, because the winnings are the only part you keep. The same £40 is worth £20 at 2.00, £30 at 4.00 and £13.33 at 1.50.

Then subtract what the qualifying bet cost you. You have to stake £10 at the bookmaker's own price to unlock the offer, and that price carries the margin, so on average the qualifying bet is not free either. The calculator does both halves.

Staying in charge of itDeposit limits, timeouts and self-exclusion, and where to get help that is not us.

Every Gambling Commission licensed operator has to offer deposit limits, reality checks, timeouts and self-exclusion, and is obliged to apply them once you ask. They are in the account settings, not hidden behind support.

GAMSTOP will exclude you from every GB licensed online operator at once, for six months, one year or five years, from one form at gamstop.co.uk. It cannot be undone early, which is the point of it.

For free, confidential help that has nothing to sell you, the National Gambling Helpline is 0808 8020 133, open at any hour, and BeGambleAware.org has the full picture. If betting has stopped being entertainment, those are better first calls than any betting site, including this one.

One email, when it's real

One email when the fight engine is finished and there is something real to look at. No bookmaker offers, because we have no bookmaker deals. Unsubscribe in one click.

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